A few thoughts:
1. 5.3% error margin???? Jeepers! We just can't live by or make too much of these polls' discrete findings. There will be innumerable swings and contradictions between any specific poll. The absurdity of making too much of these polls is the 5.3% error margin. According to this:
- Romney and McCain at a "tie" (a "victory" for McCain to be tied in Romney's backyard - AFTER the immigration revolt???).
- Giuliani as being tied with Huckabee (would this make the "news of the week" that Huckabee is "tied" in New Hampshire with the national front runner?)
2. The only item of value to be gained by this incessant polling is a rough feeling for each candidate's relative placement vis-a-vis the others and an idea for the size of their backing. From this very surface analysis we can determine a few winners and losers for this round:
- Huckabee - Surprise of surprises, Huckabee is the top winner from these findings. He has no money, little press and no organization to speak of and yet he's actually within some sort of striking distance of the 2nd placers.
- Romney - With ALL his money, major press coverage and intense organization focus in NH, he has to win, but the good news is that he is winning there - by any measure. Good for him.
- McCain - Another gaping surprise. Despite disappointing money, a hemorrhaging organization and negative press, he's about equal with Giuliani - the national leader.
- Giuliani - NH is in his home region. He's the national front runner. He has solid resources and 5 years on organizing. Yet, he's about even with the base's nemesis (John McCain) and is well behind Romney.
Without living and dieing by these exact & shifting poll data, its easy to see why primary prognostications can't be made the easy way by looking only at broad national polls. Each state is a new race and each candidate has a to live or die by the realities of that market place.
On Principle,
CBass
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