Tucson Speech

Many thanks to Stephanie (Taffy) Johnson and the Pima County Republican Women's Club for hosting me as the main speaker at their meeting on 11/18. This is an excited, motivated, positive and effective club of activists.

I spoke on the reasons I am optimistic over the GOP's chances in 2008. What follows is a short handout I left with the club which somewhat covers many of the topics we discussed.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

Factors For:

1. The Democratic Line-up: The GOP's greatest strength in the general election will be the Democratic opposition. No matter whom the Dem's select, they will be no match in terms of experience for the Republican selection.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the GOP MUST clearly and consistently ask for and demand the qualifications of the Dem nominee.

2. The Republican Line-up: By any standard, the Republican field is impressive. Especially when compared to the utter lack of experience of the Democratic field. The Republicans all have high Executive or Legislative experience and none of them carry any baggage from the current Administration.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the GOP MUST clearly and consistently contrast themselves with both the Dem nominee and the current administration.

3. Mobilizing a Wider Base: In a tight election cycle, there are two keys to winning: 1) Draw in moderate centrist voters and 2) mobilize the base. Two of the GOP front runners (Mitt Romney and Giuliani) are very well positioned to draw in moderates. Fred Thompson is riding a wave of Base excitement and has high name recognition among moderates. When compared to the likely Dem nominee (Hillary), all 3 should be able to excite the base and capitalize on the displeasure of moderates with the Dem congress.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the nominee must remind the base of the critical issues at stake this year and must positively motivate moderates – especially past Republicans.

4. It's the Economy: By all measures, this economy is fantastic. It is hitting some hiccups now, but some action from the current Administration and the Fed will likely keep it on the growth track. Even moderate growth over the next 12 months will result in a reduced deficit, high wages, an enlarged GDP, record highs in stocks, historic lows in unemployment and interest rates and a stabilized housing sector. Additionally, tax cuts are set to expire in 2010 – making for an easy and precise measure of EXACLY how much a Dem President and Congress will cost voters.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the facts must be told in terms of timeless conservative principles, not a continuation of Bush policies.

5. The War on Terrorism: It's hard to say which direction this war will go, but Iraq is clearly on the right military track and we know the Surge will be drawing down next Spring. Thus, the GOP candidate can probably point to some positive signs in Iraq, praise the draw down in troops and constantly focus on the real threats of China, Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Pakistan, etc. If the electorate sees some success in Iraq and understands the threat from other quarters, the GOP should do well.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the GOP must call Americans to set priorities without playing the “fear” card.

Factors Against:

1. Immigration Reform: Security mustbe first, but terms must be tight. If the GOP uses blanket terms (Immigrant, Hispanics, Illegals, etc), they will be quickly painted as racist. A party can’t win elections without votes from voters. Hispanics are a growing voting bloc. To electability influence the GOP must get wise in terms, policies and coalition building with Hispanics.

2. Ethic Scandals: Real and perceived moral fecklessness shipwrecked the GOP in 2006. Value votes won’t stand for it in 2008 either. Real failings must be disciplined. Perceived ethical lapses must be challenged.

3. Housing, Stock and Oil Turmoil: The economy is a great campaign platform for the GOP, but a still stagnant housing market, stock slumps and increasingly high oil prices, could rot this support. There is no magical inoculation against market volatility. The GOP must figure out how to trumpet financial conservatism without hanging its hat on every micro-indicator.

4. Health Care: The Dems will march with full force to the tune of Universal Healthcare. While the left-leaning media trumpets along with the handpicked results of selective polling. The facts and history are on the side of conservative principles, but this will be an uphill fight the entire way.

5. GOP Civil War: A debate between wings of the GOP is healthy and appropriate for the Primary process. But the wings must decide to unite behind the eventual nominee if the candidate has any chance at success.

On Principle Blog:

“On Principle Blog” is a website dedicated to analyzing the important topics of the day in the light of enduring principles. The site presents a definitively faith-filtered, yet untraditional viewpoint while unapologetically offering creative approaches, explanations and solutions to topics of interest.