Super-Disappointed Delegates

I'm still a bit confused and baffled as to the all-consuming narrative that the Clinton campaign is caput. I may post some original thoughts in the next several days about the numerous reasons I see for her rational decision to remain in the race (and I'm someone who now believes Obama is the Republican's best opportunity for victory). But in this post, I want to question the assumption I'm hearing often repeated that Democratic Super Delegates are nearly unanimous in their push to have Hillary withdraw from the race out of fear that she is damaging the party. In fact, I think the exact opposite is really the case.

As I'll show below, the only two conclusions that make sense to me are that:

1. The majority of Super Delegates actually fear that Obama will result in a Democratic defeat in the November.
   

   And / Or
   

2. The majority of Super Delegates actually support Hillary and are awaiting an opportunity to proclaim it.
   

1. Prior to PA
   

   If Super Delegates in any large measure were set against Hillary and feared her impact upon the race, they could have confidently come out in support of Obama following the Ohio and Texas primaries – where Hillary, despite convincing wins in two large states gained only a handful of Delegates against Obama. The mathematics of pledged Delegates was clear at that point (2 months ago!). It would have been a simple matter for more Super Delegates to throw their public support behind Obama with a simple reference to party rules and Delegate counts. In so doing, the Super Delegates could have negated the extra 6 weeks of "negative" campaigning leading into the PA primary – if they actually supported Obama, that is.
   

   Once again, after PA, Hillary's sizable win didn't make much of a dent in Obama's Delegate lead. Thus, if Super Delegates were enthusiastic about Obama, they again could have started publically stating their support for him following PA. At that point, it was even more obvious that Hillary wasn't going to win the Pledge Delegate count.
   

   So, noting the near certainty of Obama's unassailable lead in Pledged Delegates some 2 months ago, and faced with the certain knowledge of Hillary's need to "go negative", why would the Super Delegates sit by quietly?
   

   
   

2. Popular Vote
   

   When I reference the fact that Super Delegates could have thrown their support behind Obama 2 months ago if they truly were enthused for him, I'm NOT stating that all the remaining several hundred would have needed to do so. No indeed. If only 10, 20, 30, 40 or 50 Super Delegates came out publically in his camp following TX and OH, the media coverage of such an "avalanche" of support would have arrested attention lavished upon Hillary's triumph and shown her continued candidacy to be a complete farce and fantasy.
   

   
   

   "But wait", you may say, "Super Delegates are largely elected officials. They are afraid to make public pronouncements until they can see the direction of public sentiment. And such certainty would be available until after more Primary votes." This sounds reasonable, but it isn't.
   

   
   

   Many of the Super Delegates represent constituencies which had already long ago voted in earlier Primaries. If they enthusiastically supported Obama, they could have easily come out in public support of his campaign with the simple statement that they are simply honoring the popular vote of their constituents.
   

   
   

   Heath Shuler today announced his Super Delegate vote for Hillary Clinton, despite the fact that his state, North Carolina, favored Obama by some 14% points. He can do this, because his district was won by Clinton.
   

   
   

   How many undeclared Super Delegates who support Obama represent districts and states which have already held Primaries? If they enthusiastically supported Obama, is it possible that there are at least 10, 20, 40 or 50 such Super Delegates? I'm willing to bet. Then why wouldn't they publically proclaim their support, secure in their alignment with their districts, and save their party from 2 additional months of controversy and negativity?
   

   
   

   
   

3. Pledges Are NOT Permanent
   

   It may be argued that Super Delegates, as elected officials, are notoriously careful to cover themselves. Thus, there is no reason for them to publically proclaim their support until the Primaries are completed and the vote totals are obvious. This is nonsense.
   

   
   

• As I point about above, many of these Super Delegates already know the vote of their constituents. If they were enthused about Obama, they could confidently support him.
  

  
  

• The party's Congressional leadership have pretty much already publically proclaimed their support for Obama. Thus adding further cover for these Super Delegates.
  

Further, I suggest one further cover is available for wise Super Delegates. Instead of publically stating their "Pledge", they could have come out with their "Intention" to support. Why couldn't Super Delegates who secretly support Obama simply state, "Based upon the clear expression of my constituents and the overwhelming lead in Pledged Delegates held by Senator Obama, I am currently intending to (or leaning toward) support his nomination, though I'm still supportive of the entire process playing out to ensure we select the best nominee for our great party"?

Such a statement wouldn't even need to be made directly. Every Super Delegate is deluged by interest in the leaning of their vote. They could make such a statement in a simple, off-the-cuff sort of manner in some public forum.

And notice the terminology. They aren't "Pledging". They aren't making an official announcement. They are simply indicating a direction in which they may lean at the present moment – but are still open to change. This simple maneuver would provide all the cover they need to later change their minds if necessary.

All Obama needed was a small team of 10, 20 or 30 supportive Super Delegates to make such public statements in the 2 – 3 days following the TX and OH primaries. Surely his campaign is savvy enough to identify and know how to entice such a small cadre of supporters into making such statements in groups of 5 or 10 each day. This small show of support, for someone who is truly already enthused for Obama would have put enormous pressure on Hillary, would have changed the media coverage going into PA, would have provided a template for other secrete Super supporters and would have probably saved the party another 2 months of negative vetting of Obama.

When I examine the above logic, I can only assume 2 things:

1. There are certainly Super Delegates who support Obama from completed Primary states. If they haven't made such a simple and tentative pronouncement of support they are either even more spineless than I imagine or they are holding out for patronage from the eventual winner – which means they don't truly support Obama enthusiastically.
   

   
   

2. The bulk of Super Delegates believe Hillary's message that Obama is the least electable in the General Election of the two candidates. They have been waiting and hoping for the past 2 months that Hillary can generate enough momentum and support to allow them to make a similar, tentative statement in her favor – to eventually cause a tipping point. But with the dismal results of Indianan and North Carolina, these Super Delegates are just super disappointed.
   

On Principle,

CBass