Trade Wind Tumult

In keeping with this fascinating Primary marathon, there are some interesting currents blowing across South Caroline which threaten to disrupt the neatly predictable primary trade winds of surfed by the Established media. These winds steadily blow from Iowa to New Hampshire and then down to South Carolina before sweeping the nation with news of an ordained front runner.

Not so this year. And especially not so in South Carolina today. Consider:

Snow in the Upstate

All avid followers of politics know the importance that weather plays in turning out voters. On a good day, voters participate in Primaries in much lower numbers than they do in general election contests. Those who do vote enact this right of citizenship due to some strongly felt conviction about the system, a candidate or an issue.

Snow is not unheard of in Upstate SC, where I went to college, but three inches on the ground and icing up the many bridges is a definite hindrance to the less than zealous. It will be interesting to see how this affects Huckabee's run. While polling well around the entire state, his base of support is indeed in this growing evangelical expanse. As we saw in Iowa, Huck's supporters tend more toward the side of zeal. This is good for Huck and should dampen down the negative affect of the weather on him. Verse other candidates in this region, he should fair better. But verse the rest of the state where the weather is merely annoying rain (McCain's stronghold), not deadly ice, Huck risks the loss of critical numbers in this tied for first race.

My guess. My sad, dejected and weeping guess is that the weather, on total, will help McCain. But there is hope . .

Shifting Support: Thompson or Romney Surprise?

SC may just upset the GOP apple cart in a fashion similar to Hillary's amazing upset over Obama in New Hampshire. There, the girl wonder somehow wooed record numbers of voters. In SC, the voters are proving to be reluctant dates. Scott Rasmussen - widely regarded to be the most accurate political pollster in the business - reports:

Perhaps the most significant finding of the survey was that, as of Wednesday night, 41% of voters indicated that they might change their mind. That includes 7% who have not decided on anyone, 10% who said there’s a good chance they could change their mind, and another 24% who said they could change their mind. Such uncertainty just three days before an election is extraordinary.

What could these numbers mean:

1. First, keeping with the law of motivation, I suspect the weather will dampen these numbers. If so, perhaps only half of these undecided voters (20% of the statewide turnout) will vote in today's weather - even though these were all "likely voters".

2. Second, if they break in a distribution mirroring the current polling - and considering the likely lower turnout for Huck in the Upstate - McCain stands to inch ahead quite convincingly. :(
   

• Currently Polling: McCain and Huckabee around 25% / Romney and Thompson around 18%.
  

• Undecided Voters: 20% of turnout = McCain and Huckabee +5% each / Romney and Thompson +3% each.
  

• Considering Weather: Inclement weather skews this distribution a bit more toward McCain and:
  
• McCain +5% (30% total) / Huckabee +2-3% (27-28%) / Romney and Thompson +2 - 3% (around 20%)

3. Third, Thompson has been gaining in the polls consistently for the last 1 - 2 weeks. As such, it is possible, just possible, Thompson could be in the running for 1st or 2nd place suddenly:

• Undecided Voters: 20% turnout due to inclement weather =
  
• McCain +3 (28%) / Huckabee +2 (27%) / Romney +3 (21%) / Thompson +12 (28%) - an amazingly tight race with McCain.

4. Fourth, McCain, Huckabee and Thompson have all been campaigning hard in SC for weeks. If 41% of likely voters (assuming 20% of actual turnout) still aren't decided, only a small number are likely to break for them now. Keeping the above numbers, but skewing for Romney and the other candidates and assuming a small "surge" for Romney from Michigan and his recent campaign adds we may see something like:

• McCain +2 (27%) / Huckabee +2 (27%) / Thompson +4 (20%) / Romney +10 (28%) / Others +2 - a close Romney win or convincing 2nd.
  

Nevada News - Romney's Ace?

The weather may have brought one more wild card into the race, a card which may just be Romney's "Trump" card.

Folks are more likely to stay home today. When folks stay home, they watch TV. Romney's win in NV was called 6 -7 hours before polls closed in SC. This win will get at least some airtime during those 6 - 7 hours.

Some of those undecided voters - or even week supporters for other candidates - may have been influenced by news of Romney's 3rd state win, his 2 "silver medals" and his commanding lead in the Delegate count.

Frankly, I think this is a VERY, VERY long shot.

I think things look good for McCain today. But, if this NV win factors in on top of the shifting support out outlined above, it could break just enough for Romney or Thompson to squeak out a 2nd place finish. Either way, Romney's win certainly helps insulate him from losing the expectations game out of SC.

On Principle,

CBass