Fred!: Right on Time

Somehow, the same commentators who bemoaned the unprecedented length of our current Presidential Primary process are also condemning Fred! Thompson for not officially entering the fray in July or August. I would like to quickly examine these propositions.

July:

I, like most conservatives, was keenly interested in seeing Fred! Thompson officially throw his hat in the ring of GOP contenders. Thus, when I heard rumors swilling about in June that Fred! would announce the launch of his campaign in around July 4th - with $5 million in June donations, I was excited. It quickly occurred to me, however:

1. How has Fred had the time to assemble a viable national campaign? Romney invested 6 months developing a network of support which would yield $6 million in "overnight" donations to his campaign in January. Both Romney and Giuliani have sunk more than 1 year in building campaign operations which are only now starting to roll out substantive policy positions. Fred was going to do this in 2 or 3 months???
2. He's already getting so much media attention (at least from the few folks who pay attention to these things in the summer months), why would he need to rush #1?
3. As long as he's getting free media and can quietly focus on prepping a campaign, why would Fred! risk ruining all this for the sake of an early announcement?

For these and probable other reasons, Fred! Refrained from announcing in early July.

August:

Conventional wisdom then commanded an early August announcement. Still I questioned this:

1. August certainly gave Fred! more time to organize, but this time was filled with attracting new leaders and restructuring his not-a-campaign. Why announce while there's still important work to be done?
   
2. Despite the summer doldrums, Fred! was polling in a solid second place nationally and near the top in two of the early primary states. Why announce early when you don't need the name recognition?
   
3. Fred! Is almost guaranteed to get a boost in the polls for several weeks after announcing. Why do this just 2 weeks before the largest event prior to the primaries - the Ames, Iowa straw poll? The poll was certain to garner media attention, again - what good that does in the summer - and would automatically severe whatever boost he would get from announcing.

In fact, Romney invested heavily in Iowa with the expectation that a win there would be necessary to get his name into the "living rooms" of Americans who know nothing of him. Similarly, Mike Huckabee, the "dark horse" of Ames was hoping to ride media accolades right into the company of first tier candidates. Rasumssen Reports has found that media coverage of these men's commendable performances has been missed by most Americans.

This simply goes to reinforce that Fred's! announcement of candidacy in August would have done very little for him above what his free media coverage is already winning.

September:

Announcing in September allows Fred! to take advantage of the following:

1. Time to build a message and a campaign structure, which has clearly been undergoing drastic change during the summer.
2. Time to raise more funds, but cover (hey, Fred's not even a candidate yet) if funds come in short of expectations.
   
3. Free media coverage and a predictable bounce in the polls without any other major campaign news to distract from it until eyes turn to Newt at the end of September.

In all, the only folks who would benefit from Fred having announced earlier would be:

• The news media, who would do anything to create excitement and viewership during the ratings slump that is July and August.
  
• Rival campaigns who know candidate Thompson can't possibly live up to expectations. So the early he enters, the earlier he fails and the earlier they can reclaim support which has been stored up for him.

On Principle,

CBass