1. The 3 levels of our war on terror
2. An overview of how to measure success in Iraq
Combatant Contraband :
As examined previously, we need to more publicly communicate and analyze Coalition victories in eradicating combatants (killed, surrendered and imprisoned - especially those in terrorist leadership). But there is a greater context to this metric - it’s the context not discussed in Vietnam. Quantifying the number of combatants eradicated informs us at to the effectiveness of our operations, but not as to the strength of our adversary. To measure our operational success in this context, we must understand the well spring from which terrorist acts are drawn.
Explosive Terror:
Terrorist acts, like the suicide bombs which have been seared into our minds as an instant association, are characterized by an explosion of pent up energy. This is what science would call an exothermic event - an event which quickly dissipates stored energy outward. This sudden, seemingly random, unexpected explosion of heated hatred and violence is what catalyzes the reaction of fear in the human heart.
The energy which powers successive acts of terror must come from somewhere. Prior to every exothermic event, there is an endothermic process - a process which absorbs and stores energy to make ready for a potential explosion. In this manner, terror groups and terror networks serve to absorb, store and eventually release explosive acts of terror. These endothermic groups must absorb the means of violence.
Inputs to Terror:
The US military refers to these inputs as "accelerants to violence". Accelerants can be anything which feeds energy and capability into terror groups. Examples of "Accelerants" may include:
- ○ Money and food
- ○ Munitions and training
- ○ Transportation and staging
- ○ Intelligence and cover
And in the case of Islamic terrorism, an important Accelerant is:
- ○ Irrational hate and Existential reward
State Sourcing:
Waging a terrorist battle on a national level for 4 years, requires massive inputs of these Accelerants to Violence. Terrorists must be recruited and bolstered in their existential mission. They must be armed, trained and mobilized. They must be fed and housed. They must be granted intelligence as to targets and "cover" stories for access (stolen uniforms, black SUV's, forged security badges, etc).
Republican presidential candidates just invested millions of dollars in finding, recruiting, transporting, feeding, educating and mobilizing a few thousand voters in Ames Iowa. Yet, some in our World want to turn a blind eye to the obvious role nation-states are playing in sponsoring and resourcing terrorist acts and terror networks in Iraq??? Establishing a national network of these accelerants is an enormous task which requires material investments and cultural support which can only be sourced out of the warehouse of nation-states. This is the reason the term, "War" is appropriate in the context of our current struggle.
Journey To the Center of Iraq:
New accelerants imported into Iraq must be transported to their target population, such as Baghdad - the largest population center. What does this look like?
- ○ A human heart must be recruited and radicalized into a terrorist.
- ○ The would be terrorist and the means of attack must be brought across the Iraqi border.
- ○ Terrorists and weapons must be transported.
- ○ In a nation at war and checkered with checkpoints, this journey probably requires several days and numerous safe houses.
- ○ This network requires funding and food to maintain.
- ○ Eventually, new terrorists must be contacted and provided guidance
- ○ When necessary, terrorists must be united with highly technical munitions and/or cover material.
This journey is perilous, difficult and costly. It requires intact terror networks. When we eradicate combatants, we disrupt these inflows of further accelerants to violence. Disrupt, but not eliminate. Once regrouped, the terror network now has fewer inputs to gather - thanks to the accelerants which remain in place. Thus, without this important contextual metric, the count of combatant eradicated is important but merely temporary.
Back to the Surge:
With the above perspective in mind, let's return to the strategy behind the Surge. The much misunderstood Surge in troops and then in Operations is NOT intended to be the definitive end of terrorist violence in all of Iraq. Indeed, the Surge has 2 very specific aims - 1) To decrease terror capabilities in Baghdad such that the Iraqi government can BEGIN to function and 2) To free key population centers around Baghdad such that local reconciliation and development efforts raise enough micro-cultural support to sustain that locale's freedom from fear.
Understanding this strategy is critical to measuring the success of the Surge. Our ultimate Long War on Terrorism must deal with uprooting the deeply entrenched accelerants to violence in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and Pakistan (especially Waziristan). But in the Surge, it is enough to seize these accelerants in and around Baghdad. And by "around" we are talking 1 - 2 days journey from the capital city.
Victory:
So, we know the Surge is succeeding in eradicating combatants, especially leadership, but how are we doing against these accelerants that, if left in place, make the job easier for the next recruit? Several resources daily report upon this progress, but here I'll suggest and report just a few:
Original Sources:
Aggregators:
Before closing out this post, it seems appropriate to provide a few examples of what this context provides in terms of practical measures.
- The Coalition is receiving local tips as to weapons caches
- Cache seizures are way up since the surge
- Transport systems are being dismantled
- Bomb factories have been closed
Bomb, bomb factories, booby traps, torture rooms, weapons caches, mobilization methods (boats, trucks, safe houses, etc) = Accelerants to Violence Seized
On Principle,
CBass
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