Iowa Predictions

I've been busy with multiple clients and holiday travels, but you'll start to see my posts returning with regularity forthwith.

Because it is what "pundits" do, I feel I must place a prediction for the GOP Iowa caucuses prior to the announcement of winners and losers. So, here I go:

Romney will win. But not for the reason most people cite.

Romney's campaign structure in Iowa is organized, professional, high tech and efficient. This was proven and tested in August for the Straw Poll and has had 5 months and millions of dollars to further gel. No other candidate on the GOP side has as organized a structure to identify and "turn out" voters to the Caucuses. Yet, I don't think Romney will win because of this "get out the vote" effort. He would lose without it, but he won't win just because of it.

While Romney yields the best organization, Huckabee has zeal on the side of his converts. An organized campaign structure alone does not motivate someone to participate in a Caucus - and football - on a cold January night in Iowa. Caucuses are great for the zealous because it requires their engagement. Caucuses are terrible for the majority of voters as it negates the relative ease and anonymity of the polling booth. While Romney can identify and mobilize caucus goers, his issues don't stir zeal. Huckabee, for all his weaknesses on foreign policy, stands on the "side of the angels" on many social issues. His backers are likely to be more zealous, and being church goers, more accustomed to community discussion.

Lacking any sort of actual quantitative data on this side of the vote, I will lazily predict that these two dynamics (Romney's organization and Huckabee's zealous supporters) will cancel each other out.

Why Will Romney Win?

Romney will win because of another aspect of his organization.

1. Romney supports tend to be more politically experienced and are being professionally educated on HOW to caucus. Caucusing is not a sport for the novice or weak willed. It is a sport which can be dominated by the well trained.

Thus:

2. In a caucus environment, the trained supporters of Romney will know how to persuade and will have command of "talking points" at their finger tips. By nature and experience, they will be seeking to dissuade Huckabee supporters from their often unfounded zeal. This won't work for all (in fact it will offend many Huckabee diehards), but it will work on some. By stark contract, I don't think Huck supporters will voters leaning toward Romney. Romney supporters aren't such due to zeal. They have reached this decisions through some form of decisive judgment. Thus, in a close election, Romney stands to gain some support from the Huckabee camp - and that could make ALL the difference.

And:

3. What few "undecided voters" turn out in the winter cold (and who deny themselves Orange Bowl viewing) are waiting to be swayed by the caucus discussion. This is intrinsic to their nature as being "undecided" voters. In this context, experienced or trained operators will probably carry more weight of influence than the merely zealous - notice, undecided voters haven't yet caught onto the Huckabee band wagon, so a bit of zeal probably won't be enough to do so. But voters well trained, educated and informed by Romney's campaign will likely carry more weight.

And:

4. The GOP caucuses in Iowa feature a single vote, so there is less dealing for "secondary" support as in the Democratic caucuses. However, it is possible that some supporters of "lower tier" candidates (Thompson, McCain, Paul, Hunter) may opt to vote for one of the two candidates battling it out for 1st place. If so, Thompson, Hunter and McCain supporters are VERY unlikely to vote for Huckabee due to his widely published animus toward the Bush Administration's foreign policy. This leave Huck only a few Ron Paul supporters - another VERY zealous group. They are unlickly to vote for anyone, but if they do, they will likely vote for Huck BECAUSE of his animus toward Bush's foreign policy. The bleeding of support from these other candidates won't be much, but bleeding from 3 candidates (for Romney) is better than bleeding from 1 (for Huckabee). In a close race, this slight swing in support may make all the difference.

Close elections are like golf, slight swings in votes - due to a slightly more masterful execution of strategy - can make the entire difference. It normally isn't due to one candidate being LEAGUES better than another.

I must caveat with all the rest of the political community that no one can predict Iowa tonight. But since the only fun is in trying, I look forward to seeing how my prognostications stand up to the harsh glare of reality.

On Principle,

CBass