Phoenix Speech

I'm returning home from Phoenix where I was honored to deliver a short speech to the Arizona Federation of Republican women.

Here are some summary notes we included in the conference packet for each attendee:

Why the GOP Can Retain the White House in 2008

Winning Factors:

1.The Primary Calendar: For the next 2 months, Huckabee’s campaign will provoke a civil debate over conservative principles and will maintain pressure on McCain to reach out toward conservative constituencies. In addition, thanks to Romney’s gracious suspension of his campaign, the GOP probably has 4 – 6 months to clarify, unify, organize and invest for victory ahead of the nominee of a hyper energized Democratic base.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the GOP MUST clarify our unmovable core principles, agree on topics still open to debate and emotionally unify behind our nominee – without wasting a day.


2.The Democratic Line-up: Election after election, the Democratic party kindly nominates critically flawed nominees. Neither Clinton or Obama should be underestimated, but BOTH are capable of being beaten.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the GOP MUST calmly and consistently contrast our nominee with both the Dem nominee.


3.Understanding Change: Every election is a triumph for the message of “change”. The key in this election, however, is to understand exactly what exact kinds of “change” are wanted. American’s overwhelmingly support conservative principles (lower taxes, family values, individual responsibility and security). Rasmussen polls for party identity demonstrate that the current administration is supported by about half of the nation’s Independents.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the nominee must remind the base of the critical issues at stake this year (national security, taxes and judges) and must positively motivate moderates – especially past Republicans.


4.It's the Economy: Under the Bush economy, minority house ownership is at an all time record, job growth continued unabated for a record 52 months, the GDP grew faster than any other industrialized nation and unemployment has remained below the average for any of the past 3 decades. Additionally, the “Bush” tax cuts are set to expire in 2010 – making for an easy and precise measure of EXACLY how much a Dem President and Congress will cost individual voters.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the facts must be told in terms of timeless conservative principles, not as a continuation of Bush policies. For example, highlight the radical moves toward fiscal conservatism in Ireland, France, Eastern Europe, New Zealand, Australia and Japan.


5.The War on Terrorism: It's hard to say which direction this war will ultimately go, but Iraq is clearly on the right military track, the Surge is drawing down and reconciliation laws are beginning to roll out of the Iraqi Parliament. Thus, the GOP candidate can probably point to positive signs in Iraq (if McCain, he can claim personal ownership for the policies which are bringing victory) and constantly focus on the real threats of China, Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Pakistan, etc. If the electorate sees some success in Iraq and understands the threat from other quarters, the GOP should do well.

Key: To leverage this advantage, the GOP must call Americans to set priorities without playing the “fear” card. This can be done by speaking directly to these issues of international security and calling America toward a vision of moral excellence – in the model of Reagan.



Stumbling Blocks:

1.Immigration Reform: To govern, the GOP must win elections. Traditionally, the GOP wins elections on shared principles, not identity groups. Immigration is a uniquely difficult issue for the GOP as it is inextricably linked to a racial identity – Hispanics. A party can’t win elections without votes from voters and Hispanics are passing blacks as a voting bloc. Security must be first, but terms must be tight. If the GOP uses blanket terms (Immigrant, Hispanics, Illegals, etc), we will be quickly painted as racist. Then, cool-headed logic must guide our policy preferences moving forward.


3.Housing, Stock and Oil Turmoil: The economy is a great campaign platform for the GOP, but a still stagnant housing market, stock slumps and increasingly high oil prices, could rot this support. There is no magical inoculation against market volatility. The GOP must figure out how to trumpet financial conservatism without hanging its hat on every micro-indicator.


4.Health Care: The Dems will march with full force to the tune of Universal Healthcare. While the left-leaning media trumpets along with the handpicked results of selective polling. The facts and history are on the side of conservative principles, but this will be an uphill fight the entire way.


5.GOP Civil War: Reagan’s guiding principles was that anyone who is in 80% agreement with me is my ally. Beyond that, when the 80% of agreement is National Security, networking like-minded economies and cultures against nuclear equipped and well financed regimes and gaining 1 more vote on the Supreme Court.


On Principle,
CBass