Most of you reading this blog post will do so tomorrow morning via your various “feed” subscription services. Meaning, by the time you read this, the media will already be spinning their thoughts about tonight's results.
Don't be dazzled by all the rhetoric, reams of exit poll data, conflicting claims if victory and the sheer magnitude of election results. There are only a few states and a few points that matter:
Democrats:
The Democratic primaries and caucuses don't use a winner takes all system. The methods by which they proportionally distribute delegates between candidates is unique to each state and beyond those of us who are not full-time professionals to understand. As a result, the news media will probably tend to focus on who won and who lost particular states, instead of detailing the quantity of delegates won by each candidates. Similarly, if the candidates count is close, keep searching until you find vote counts. In some states, equal quantities of delegates are awarded to candidates receiving 40% and 60% respectively. - yes, further complicating your lay analysis and further boggling the mind.
In summary:
Don't fascinate over just about who won what states. Who got what quantity of delegates in each state? That's what will determine the nomination.
If deleagate counts are close – then pay attention to actual vote totals in each state. Where does each candidate show strong support?
Republicans:
In the GOP race, only a few states really matter. Here they are:
Georgia:
Georgia is polling as a tight 3-way race. Why is Georgia important? What will it tell us?
Huckabee campaigned VERY hard here. In fact, Huckabee left Florida before the primary to hold rallys in GA when no one else was there. GA is a southern state in the Bible belt. It SHOULD be a win for Huckabee. Right now, he's polling 3rd. If he comes in 3rd, it proves he just isn't widely electable.
McCain just won the very public endorsement of GA's Senators. GA is also a state heavily loaded with military populations. McCain hasn't won a majority of Republicans in ANY state thus far, but he does very well in “open” primaries, where Independants can vote. GA is such a primary. With his endoresements, military support and Independent voters, McCain should win – he's currently polling in first or tied for first (depending upon the poll). If he comes in 2nd place, it will be a clear loss.
Romney has focused advertising dollars in GA, but hasn't spent much time in the state. Although he has positioned himself as “the conservative choice”, conventional wisdom says Huckabee should take this portion of the vote. Half the GA population resides in the metro Atlanta area – which is booming economically. Thus, he doesn't have a large pool of worried workers to leverage his business experience – as in Michigan. All told, Romney should come in 3rd as he has been consistently polling VERY poorly in the South. His current polling is in 2nd or tied for 1st place. If Romney wins, it proves he is more widely electable than one may think. If he comes in 2nd, it proves he can mobilize conservative voters after Super Tuesday should Huckabee then drop out – which is FAR from certain.
California:
I wanted to post thoughts on CA's role in this race a few weeks back, but was not able to make time for it in light of my new business ventures. CA is of interest due to it's HUGE delegate count AND due to it's way of proportioning those delegates. Each congressional district will give 3 delegates to the popular vote winner.
McCain has gained endorsements from Rudy (who formerly polled well in CA) and the "Governator". Simply put, he should win CA hands down. If he doesn't it is a sign that he MUST turn toward the base (CA COP is educated and conservative) and assuage their concerns.
Romney won't win many winner take all states – those are largely McCain's to win (Mainly New England and AZ). Thus, while Romney polls closely to McCain in CA and can claim a moral victory, that won't do much to increase his delegate count against McCain. I think Romney wisely invested in this state early. Look at the travel calendar posted on his website. He invested his time here just after his victory in the Ames Iowa straw poll. That early investment may produce his largest returns. . .
The story in CA will be the distribution of the popular vote vs. congressional districts. In terms of this analysis, think in terms of Gore's popular vote victory of Bush in 2000 (no matter what you think of the outcome in FL) through huge concentrations of votes in urban areas and thus losing the Electoral College's spread of votes across the heartland. I think CA could tell the same story. McCain may accumulate huge numbers popular votes in dense urban areas like LA and San Fran. Romney may well win smaller majorities in more Congressional districts. Thus, Romney could lose CA in terms of the Popular vote, but come out ahead by as many as 100 delegates in CA.
Also of interest to watch is the spin. CA results won't be in by the time East Coast centered coverage closes down their telecasts. McCain will win more delegates earlier in the night. He will get the spin. If Romney wins the state in Popular vote or by a convincing Delegate lead (say 50 or more) then he may pick up spin the next day. If not, his surprisingly strong showing will likely be swept under the rug of the Clinton/Obama death match.
Massachusetts:
Conventional wisdom, polls and common sense all say that Romney should win convincingly here tonight.
McCain campaigned here over the weekend while Romney was pushing a sudden and impressive surge of support in CA. Tonight's vote will show if McCain is crazy like a fox or just crazy like a man left marooned at see (think Tom Hanks and his buddy, “Wilson”).
If Romney doesn't win convincingly here, it is hard to imagine a case for his continued support. This is his home state, he has mobilization networks and knows the politics. He was pretty popular as Governor and the primary is closed against Independents. If he loses, McCain is crazy like a prophet!
Arizona:
Much like I predicted CA would be a huge state in this race several weeks ago, I predict that AZ, starting Wednesday COULD change the dynamics in this race.
Simply put, many in the AZ GOP simply don't like John McCain. They have lived with him as their Senator and he's burned many bridges with much of the base. Just as he has “stuck his thumb” in the collective Conservative eye on some high profile issues in the past, I'm told that many GOP activists may take today/tonight to do the same back to McCain.
McCain boasted in the CNN/Politico debate held at the Reagan Presidential Library that he would not lose endorsement in his home state – unlike Romney in MA. That may be his set up. If McCain were to lose AZ, Romney will play that line against the vote total mercilessly. Plus, AZ is a winner takes all state with 53 delegates – a meaty sum.
I assume McCain will win AZ tonight, but if Romney comes in a close second, there is a real story to be told about McCain's inability to please his base constituency – which will forecast real weakness in the General election.
There's another items you analysts should look at: by what percentage spread does Romney win his home state vs. McCain win his? Since McCain campaigned in MA and Romney didn't campaign in AZ, Romney should win by the lesser spread. If McCain is the one squeaking out a narrow victory – it should educate the Senator to change tactics and speak to the base.
On Principle,
CBass
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